Checking myself in

Happy Friday! We get asked a lot by investors why they shouldn’t just buy a 6-month Treasury bond, collect that 5%, and call it a day. So, I wrote about why that’s not an optimal long-term plan. Reach out if you’d like a copy. Moving on… Stability The Fed has a dual mandate of (1)…More


Happy Friday! This week, I wrote about five reasons why the current “crisis” isn’t like the last one. Not trying to beat a dead horse, but clients need to realize that today is a story about bonehead decisions by a handful of executives at banks (as always, reach out if you’d like a copy). The…More

I respect the strategy

Happy Friday! I’ve been getting a lot of questions lately about dividend stocks, so I wrote about them this week. These are some of the best-performing equity strategies over time, but it’s not as easy as picking high-yielding stocks. Nor should an investor allocate too much to any single factor unless there’s a very specific…More

Proud to be an American

Happy Friday! This week, I updated one of my favorite charts comparing Wall Street Strategists’ forecasts of the S&P 500 to the actual return. The idea is to show that forecasts don’t work, nor are they needed. It’s all about the financial plan.  Moving on… Is the world’s most painful trade ending? America isn’t perfect.…More

Let’s hope for a blowout

Happy Friday! This week I interviewed a surprise guest. Not sure how your clients will find it. The Luddites will probably buy more ammo, while the early adopters’ heads may explode – especially over the haiku. Moving along… Is this a bull market? The stock market has had a good start to 2023, and as…More

Simple pleasures

Happy Friday! This week is about leading indicators I’m watching closely and why. The key point here is that no data point is a trigger switch, nor can any one act on its own. That’s why this job is so hard and forces you to adopt an alcohol tolerance normally reserved for Irish dockworkers (name the movie…More

Long live Jeffrey Skilling

Happy Friday! This week, we transcribed an interview (interrogation) by the advisory team. It’s meant to act as a summary piece on some of the more pressing issues at the moment. Just two quick topics to discuss today… More evidence The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 5% in December from a year earlier after…More

Under promise, over deliver

Happy Friday! No weekly due to the holiday, but I wrote a primer on the debt ceiling a few months ago in anticipation of this clown show underway. Happy to send it your way if you so desire. Of all the dumb stuff at the intersection of politics and finance, the debt ceiling rises to the…More

It’s not a lie if you believe it

Happy New Year! Let’s never speak of 2022 again.  Ok, now that that’s out of the way, the SECURE Act 2.0 is official, so I wrote about some of the key components of this legislation. Overall there’s nothing groundbreaking, but there are a handful of nudges in here that could once again explain why Richard…More

Only one question

Happy Friday! Back when I worked on the sell-side, I hosted an “idea dinner” for several of my hedge fund and institutional buy-side clients.  I started the dinner by asking everyone where they thought the S&P would end the year. Of the 30 or so in the room, only one client thought the S&P would…More