Proud to be an American

Happy Friday! The first half of the year was the worst for the S&P 500 going back to 1970. It peaked on the first trading day of the year, lost over 13% in 107 trading days (correction phase), and then another 12% in 7 days (panic phase). Mild recovery since then puts it around a…More

Is Milton Friedman above the law?

Happy Friday! No weekly due to the short week, but let me know if you want to send something out and I’ll forward along an evergreen piece.  It’s back!!! I wrote the following back in 2019: An advisor reached out and asked what I thought about Jeff Gundlach and his predictions. He is apparently out there…More

I’ll miss the memes

Happy Friday! This week I wrote about this drawdown relative to history, why there’s nowhere to hide, and what investors should do now that we’re deep into a bear market. No investor wants to hear those three dreaded words from their advisor, but within the right context, they can still be powerful enough to keep…More

Advice to recent grads

Happy Friday! Has inflation peaked? Hard to say, but I did my best to try to answer this question in the weekly (reach out if you want a copy). Just don’t confuse “peak” with a hard stop and/or return to sub 2% inflation. That’s probably off the table for a while. Apple is big.  It’s…More

Exxon is good for the environment

Happy Friday! Another tough week for clients, so I addressed the concern around a looming recession. I’ve even spoken to some clients who think we are already in a recession.  The objective was to hypothesize how bad it could get if and when we dip into a recession. Reach out if you’d like a copy…More

Tinocoin is not a rug pull

Happy Friday! Short note this week on bear markets. I’m not crazy enough to call whether or not the S&P 500 will dip further, so the objective in this piece is to hypothesize on what one might look like if it were to happen. As always, reach out if you’d like a copy. The big…More

They don’t want to hear it

Happy Friday! I discussed five points that may help clients maintain perspective during times like these. Hard to say how clients will react though. Hoping this calms a few down, but invariably there will be that “all you say is stay the course” cohort who will have a hard time accepting anything other than negativity. …More

Best trade ever?

Happy Friday! This week revisits an economic model that I’ve found to be effective with clients. Also it’s an opportunity to ridicule economists (two birds, one stone). As always, let me know if you’d like a copy. Much to discuss… First Trust publishes great charts. The chart below is from First Trust and it’s top tier.…More

Even Icarus wouldn’t fly Southwest

Happy Friday! The 3Q2021 Quarter in Review is available. Pay particular attention to the last section (titled “Looking Ahead”). Back in late August, I suggested that we should prepare for the economy to start slowing down at some point, so I extrapolated this subject. Don’t forget the punchline here – deceleration is good for the…More

Two ends of the spectrum

Happy Friday! I hate writing about looming government decisions that don’t follow set deadlines because it’s a lot of work to put these pieces together, and policy makers always seem to squash whatever subject I write about like 5 minutes before I click “send.” Which is exactly what happened this week. I tackled the debt…More