Exxon is good for the environment

Happy Friday! Another tough week for clients, so I addressed the concern about a looming recession. I’ve even spoken to some clients who think we are already in a recession.  The objective was to hypothesize how bad it could get if and when we dip into a recession. Reach out if you’d like a copy…More

Tinocoin is not a rug pull

Happy Friday! Short note this week on bear markets. I’m not crazy enough to call whether or not the S&P 500 will dip further, so this piece’s objective is to hypothesize what one might look like if it were to happen. As always, reach out if you’d like a copy. This week’s big news was…More

They don’t want to hear it

Happy Friday! I discussed five points that may help clients maintain perspective during times like these. Hard to say how clients will react, though. Hoping this calms a few down, but invariably there will be that “all you say is stay the course” cohort who will have a hard time accepting anything other than negativity. …More

Best trade ever?

Happy Friday! This week revisits an economic model that I’ve found effective with clients. Also, it’s an opportunity to ridicule economists (two birds, one stone). As always, let me know if you’d like a copy. Much to discuss… First Trust publishes great charts. The chart below is from First Trust, and it’s top tier. It visualizes…More

Being wrong

Happy Friday! The Quarterly Review for 1Q is available, and the general theme is that those who remained disciplined and diversified got smacked because there was nowhere to hide. But since one quarter is only one quarter, there’s no reason to deviate from the fundamentals. Running low on sarcasm this week, so let’s quickly touch…More

Fat wallets, fat tails

Happy Friday! The Volatility Index (VIX) is computed by the Chicago Board of Options Exchange. This gauge is the de facto standard for measuring and tracking equity market volatility, and many consider it the “fear gauge” for stocks.  The VIX measures the implied volatility in near-term put options on the S&P 500. The higher the…More

Unanswered questions

Happy Friday! As promised, I tackled the yield curve this week. I’ve meant to write about this for years, but explaining the yield curve and its importance to clients has always been tricky. Hoping this sheds some light without getting too technical (reach out if you’d like a copy). The short version is that: This…More

We’re launching SkyNet

Happy Friday! We are launching a robo solution in April, so I wrote about robo-advisors this week in the context of technological progression. Financial services did a good job fending off technology for as long as they did. Still, with VC-supported fintech and inefficiencies that were just begging to be annihilated, this industry is now…More

It’s about time

Happy Friday! I was going to write about the Fed’s first rate hike since 2018, but I just didn’t have it in me. We’ve already discussed this too much, and there’s not much else to say. The Fed is way behind, they should have done this a year ago, and 25 bps does almost nothing…More

Even Icarus wouldn’t fly Southwest

Happy Friday! The 3Q2021 Quarter in Review is available. Pay attention to the last section (titled “Looking Ahead”). In late August, I suggested we should prepare for the economy to start slowing down, so I extrapolated this subject. Don’t forget the punchline here – deceleration is good for the economy and the stock market. Slow…More