Is Milton Friedman above the law?

Happy Friday! No weekly due to the short week, but let me know if you want to send something out, and I’ll forward along an evergreen piece.  It’s back!!! I wrote the following back in 2019: An advisor reached out and asked what I thought about Jeff Gundlach and his predictions. He is apparently out there…More

I’ll miss the memes

Happy Friday! This week I wrote about this drawdown relative to history, why there’s nowhere to hide, and what investors should do now that we’re deep into a bear market. No investor wants to hear those three dreaded words from their advisor, but within the proper context, they can still be powerful enough to keep…More

Advice to recent grads

Happy Friday! Has inflation peaked? Hard to say, but I did my best to try to answer this question in the weekly (reach out if you want a copy). Just don’t confuse “peak” with a hard stop and/or return to sub-2% inflation. That’s probably off the table for a while. Apple is big.  It’s fun…More

Exxon is good for the environment

Happy Friday! Another tough week for clients, so I addressed the concern about a looming recession. I’ve even spoken to some clients who think we are already in a recession.  The objective was to hypothesize how bad it could get if and when we dip into a recession. Reach out if you’d like a copy…More

Tinocoin is not a rug pull

Happy Friday! Short note this week on bear markets. I’m not crazy enough to call whether or not the S&P 500 will dip further, so this piece’s objective is to hypothesize what one might look like if it were to happen. As always, reach out if you’d like a copy. This week’s big news was…More

They don’t want to hear it

Happy Friday! I discussed five points that may help clients maintain perspective during times like these. Hard to say how clients will react, though. Hoping this calms a few down, but invariably there will be that “all you say is stay the course” cohort who will have a hard time accepting anything other than negativity. …More

Best trade ever?

Happy Friday! This week revisits an economic model that I’ve found effective with clients. Also, it’s an opportunity to ridicule economists (two birds, one stone). As always, let me know if you’d like a copy. Much to discuss… First Trust publishes great charts. The chart below is from First Trust, and it’s top tier. It visualizes…More

Being wrong

Happy Friday! The Quarterly Review for 1Q is available, and the general theme is that those who remained disciplined and diversified got smacked because there was nowhere to hide. But since one quarter is only one quarter, there’s no reason to deviate from the fundamentals. Running low on sarcasm this week, so let’s quickly touch…More

Fat wallets, fat tails

Happy Friday! The Volatility Index (VIX) is computed by the Chicago Board of Options Exchange. This gauge is the de facto standard for measuring and tracking equity market volatility, and many consider it the “fear gauge” for stocks.  The VIX measures the implied volatility in near-term put options on the S&P 500. The higher the…More

Unanswered questions

Happy Friday! As promised, I tackled the yield curve this week. I’ve meant to write about this for years, but explaining the yield curve and its importance to clients has always been tricky. Hoping this sheds some light without getting too technical (reach out if you’d like a copy). The short version is that: This…More