The housing recession is here

Happy Friday! The worst part of this job is keeping up with politics and elections, but it’s important because the clown show in D.C. sets the rules of the game. Midterms are coming up in less than three months, so I wrote about the influence of politics on investing (reach out if you want a…More

Balenciaga caused the recession

Happy Friday! I’ve noticed an uptick in scary stock charts; as usual, most of them provide zero value. That’s what I wrote about this week. Hopefully, your clients will walk away with the same level of skepticism towards any chart circulated online (with obvious exception to what’s provided in this blog). As always, reach out…More

Did the market bottom?

Happy Friday! Did the market bottom back in mid-June? That’s the question we attempt to answer in the weekly (reach out if you want a copy). I’m not crazy enough to call a bottom, but there’s a fair amount of data to indicate that it could have been one.  But the real objective of this…More

The economic hangover

Happy Friday! Took a break from market commentary this week. Feel like this “are we in a recession or not” dead horse can only be beaten so much. That being said, I took a few swings below. We are slowing down There’s this idea that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative…More

The worst kind of shrinkflation

Happy Friday! This week I wrote about the recent strength of the dollar and why the media views every move of the dollar negatively. If it weakens, it’s one step away from hyperinflation, and when it gets stronger, the story becomes weaker earnings for multi-national corporations and “doom loops.” The TLDR version is this… We…More

Hair nation is too expensive

Happy Friday! The Halftime Report was published this week. Let’s never speak of the first half of 2022 again, but let me know if you’d like a copy. Moving on… A rose by any other name  The Russell indices rebalanced back in late June, and two funny things happened along the way.  First, GameStop was removed…More

Proud to be an American

Happy Friday! The year’s first half was the worst for the S&P 500 going back to 1970. It peaked on the first trading day of the year, lost over 13% in 107 trading days (correction phase), and then another 12% in 7 days (panic phase). The mild recovery since then puts it around a loss…More

Is Milton Friedman above the law?

Happy Friday! No weekly due to the short week, but let me know if you want to send something out, and I’ll forward along an evergreen piece.  It’s back!!! I wrote the following back in 2019: An advisor reached out and asked what I thought about Jeff Gundlach and his predictions. He is apparently out there…More

I’ll miss the memes

Happy Friday! This week I wrote about this drawdown relative to history, why there’s nowhere to hide, and what investors should do now that we’re deep into a bear market. No investor wants to hear those three dreaded words from their advisor, but within the proper context, they can still be powerful enough to keep…More

Advice to recent grads

Happy Friday! Has inflation peaked? Hard to say, but I did my best to try to answer this question in the weekly (reach out if you want a copy). Just don’t confuse “peak” with a hard stop and/or return to sub-2% inflation. That’s probably off the table for a while. Apple is big.  It’s fun…More